Robert Mislavsky

Assistant Professor of Marketing - Johns Hopkins University

Combining Probability Forecasts: 60% and 60% is 60%, but Likely and Likely is Very Likely



When combining advisors’ numeric probability forecasts about an event (e.g., “there is a 60% chance that this stock’s price will increase”), people are more likely to use an averaging strategy, often converging to the average advisor’s forecast. However, when combining verbal probability forecasts (e.g., “it is likely that the stock’s price will increase”), people are more likely to use a “counting” strategy, causing their forecasts to become more extreme than any individual advisor.


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